When trying to find good bets in horse races we sometimes work so hard we might be considered obsessive. While doing your best is always a good thing and I don't want to discourage you from working hard at finding winning horses, a little caution should be used. For instance, sometimes, when we try too hard, analysis becomes paralysis, as the saying goes.
First of all, think of all the things that can happen in a horse race. There are so many factors that should be considered when you look at the runners, jockeys, trainers, and other people involved in a race. What other people re involved, you ask? How about the owner, who may be calling the shots or a racing steward who might write the race conditions to favor one particular horse?
With all the things that can go wrong in a race and all the split second decisions a rider needs to make, how can you possibly think you can cover all the contingencies? You can't. The best method for handicapping that I've found is to look at the top factors like speed, class, form, and connections (trainer-jockey combinations).
Then look at the race conditions and see if they favor one or more of the runners in the race. They usually do. Next, look at the racing model to see which running style usually wins this particular race. Now look over the horses to see who has an advantage based on the race model or conditions of a race. Make any adjustments accordingly and then set up a morning line for the horses.
Your morning line should be based on what you think each runner's real chances of winning may be. After you've done all that, stop handicapping and second guessing. You've done all you should do unless you get some reliable last minute advice. Look the runners over in the paddock and post parade to make sure they look fit and ready then make your bet if you get a horse that offers value according to your morning line.
That's all there is to it and should be all you do. Nothing more and certainly nothing less. If you have a particular horse you're following and it seems to be in the right spot, you should still handicap the race just to know what competition your horse is facing in today's race. Naturally, if you've been following that one, you know what it's ability is compared to the others and therefore, once again, should be able to determine the chances of that one winning and therefore, what fair odds may be.
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